The Reality of Ideology

Proponents of Third-Way style moderation often argue that their views better represent typical voters, voters whose views are supposedly less ideological and more moderate than Democratic party activists. Turns out, however, that the public isn't all that moderate, as Emory University's Alan Abramowitz finds in a new paper:

In recent years, a number of media commentators and scholars have blamed primary voters for the rise of polarization in American politics. According to this argument, primary electorates are dominated by strong partisans whose views are more extreme than those of rank-and-file party supporters. This article uses data from recent exit polls of primary and general election voters as well as the 2006 Cooperative Congressional Election Study to test the primary election polarization theory. The evidence does not support the theory. In fact there appears to be very little difference between the ideologies of each party's primary voters and the ideologies of its general election voters. These findings suggest that the polarized state of American politics today reflects the polarized state of the overall American electorate rather than any peculiar characteristics of primary voters. The findings also suggest that even after they secure their party's nomination, it may be risky for candidates to adopt more moderate policy positions in order to appeal to swing voters, because any such move toward the center would risk alienating a large proportion of their party's electoral base.

Among the consequences: the call that Michael Bloomberg and various has-been politicians have made for a "government of national unity" that would "get government back to the center" will fail, as it should.